by Topher Smith & Alex Johnston
Silly season is set to go into overdrive in 2024 with over half the grid having contracts due to expire at the end of the season, as well as one pretty major piece of news we've all seen...For l2025, who sticks and who twists? Topher and I have a go at predicting this one!
To start; who are the drivers out of contract? Sergio Perez(Red Bull), Pierre Gasly & Esteban Ocon(both Alpine), Lance Stroll(allegedly) & Fernando Alonso(both Aston Martin), Carlos Sainz(Ferrari), Zhou Guanyu and Valtteri Bottas(both Stake F1 Team), Logan Sargeant & Alex Albon(both Williams), Daniel Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda(both Visa Cashapp RB) and Nico Hulkenberg & Kevin Magnussen(both Haas).
📸 Can Kevin Magnussen and Slim Sha...er, Nico Hulkenberg survive 'silly season'?
So first up…
Red Bull
AJ: It’s blatantly obvious that Max Verstappen will be in the ‘first’ Red Bull car. He’s the reigning World Champion, he’s nigh on unstoppable and he’s on a very long contract. No question he’ll be there.
As for that second seat…It’s not going to be Sergio Perez, I believe after 2024 he will step away to a series where he can be a headline act, either IndyCar or Formula E. Stepping in, Daniel Ricciardo. This whole comeback of his seemed geared toward replacing Checo and that’s the route I expect Red Bull will pick for 2025.
TS: Verstappen will be at Red Bull for the rest of his Formula 1 career, unless he makes a Lewis Hamilton-style shock switch to Ferrari given the fabled appeal of driving for the Scuderia. However, this won’t happen (if at all) for a number of years yet and there is minimal doubt he will still be there in 2025.
📸 Where will we see Checo in 2025?
As for his teammate, Perez really faces an uphill battle if he is to stay with the champions beyond 2024. I believe it will be another season of struggle for the Mexican which will culminate in him potentially leaving Formula 1 altogether. Ricciardo appears to be in a prime position to return to the team that has given him seven of his eight Grand Prix wins and I can fully see it happening, providing he gets the better of his current teammate Yuki Tsunoda.
📸 "Alexa, play 'Reunited' by Peaches & Herb".
AJ: Max Verstappen & Daniel Ricciardo
TS: Max Verstappen & Daniel Ricciardo
Mercedes
📸 The last man to win a race for Mercedes will become the new team leader for 2025.
AJ: George Russell will 100% be Mercedes lead driver in 2025. Still yet to iron out imperfections in his racecraft, there’s still no denying how good the Brit is. He’s ready to be team leader too, but his teammate will definitely be there to keep him on his toes.
📸 Could Albon be the answer?
Alexander Albon is the ideal candidate for Mercedes here. He’s impressed in the Williams and has cast off the overhanging shadows of his past. He’s been leading the Williams team, as Russell did before him, and has shown himself to be one of the most consistent drivers in F1 currently.
TS: Russell has absolutely no reason to move to a different team at this moment in time. He loves Mercedes and Mercedes loves him. Lewis Hamilton moving on will provide Russell with the opportunity to be the team leader and he should thrive in that role.
I’m torn on the identity of his teammate. My heart agrees with Alex’s call of Albon joining the Silver Arrows, but my head says it’s time for Esteban Ocon to be given his chance in a top team. Ocon is definitely no slouch as a former GP3 champion and a Grand Prix winner for Alpine, and his ties to Mercedes will keep things in the family. If I had to choose one, I think Ocon might get the nod.
📸 Ocon to Mercedes?
AJ: George Russell & Alex Albon
TS: George Russell & Esteban Ocon
Ferrari
AJ: Lewis Hamilton’s shock move to Ferrari will be the talking point of 2024/25. The 7 time World Champion is among the things you naturally associate with F1, as is Ferrari. It’s a match made in heaven. For a lot of fans, the thought of Hamilton v Leclerc is exciting enough before you add in the prospect of going wheel to wheel with Red Bull’s, McLaren and Mercedes cars.
Charles Leclerc will remain with Ferrari till at least 2029, so it’s a no-brainer that the Monegasque will partner Hamilton.
📸 Now confirmed(crazy right?) as 2025 teammates.
TS: The cat is out of the bag on this one, so not much to predict here. Hamilton’s move to Ferrari came as a shock to many, but in this writer’s opinion it’s been on the cards for a long time, especially with the Brit making no secret of the fact he would always consider a switch to the Scuderia. Hamilton has nothing left to prove in Formula 1, so why not see out the rest of your career at the sport’s most fabled team and complete your legacy?
Leclerc’s stay at Ferrari serves as no surprise given he’s the team’s golden boy. The only thing that we should be trying to predict with Ferrari is who will come out on top in 2025? That I cannot answer…
AJ: Lewis Hamilton & Charles Leclerc
TS: Lewis Hamilton & Charles Leclerc
McLaren
AJ: I don’t believe we need to delve much into this one, even with the likes of F3 Champion Gabriel Bortoleto waiting in the wings. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will almost certainly be their lineup, and one Zak Brown and McLaren will hope to keep for some time.
TS: This is a driver line-up for the future and McLaren will not want to lose either Norris or Piastri for a long time. With the team’s turnaround in 2023, culminating in multiple podiums for both drivers and a sprint race victory for Piastri, neither driver will be keen to leave with the possibility of a title challenge coming in the next few seasons.
📸 One of the best driver pairings on the grid.
Should McLaren’s form drop off once again and the team returns to the midfield or worse, it might struggle to keep both drivers but that’s a conversation for another time.
AJ: Lando Norris & Oscar Piastri
TS: Lando Norris & Oscar Piastri
Aston Martin
AJ: The British team will be one of the more interesting ones to watch as we head into 2025 with Lance Stroll’s unknown contract length and Alonso’s previous relationship with Honda being frosty at best as the Japanese supplier prepares to join the team in 2026.
With that news, I’m placing Yuki Tsunoda on the team. The experience he can bring will be invaluable to the team going forward, as well as the fact Honda will be keen on a Japanese driver in the ranks, and out of contract - and popular - Tsunoda fits the bill.
📸 Ever popular, Yuki Tsunoda.
In the second seat, I’m just going to assume Lance Stroll will be there. I don’t think we’ll see Fernando after 2024 unfortunately. Lance is incredibly underrated and attracts an unbelievable amount of unfair criticism.
📸 Lance Stroll regularly comes under the spotlight.
TS: Let’s see if Alex sees this as “unfair criticism”: If Stroll was going to be a top-line Formula 1 driver, he would have shown it consistently by now. The Canadian does show the occasional flash of brilliance, just look at his pole and front-running pace at the 2020 Turkish Grand Prix, but these flashes are few and far between. Yes I said it, Alex.
AJ: “That’s fightin’ talk!”
His family ties could save his seat for all of eternity, but in my opinion it’s time for him to call it a day and look elsewhere, especially with Aston Martin developing a Le Mans hypercar for 2025.
If Aston Martin can continue its upwards trajectory and score further podiums, Alonso has no reason to move on. For his teammate, I am agreeing with Alex and saying that the team’s new ties with Honda will lead Tsunoda to the team. The Japanese has improved drastically during his time in Formula 1 and the time will be right to give him a new challenge.
📸 Evergreen Alonso, could he still be on the F1 grid in 2025?
AJ: Yuki Tsunoda & Lance Stroll
TS: Fernando Alonso & Yuki Tsunoda
Alpine
AJ: I think despite the pack shuffling, the current line up of Gasly and Ocon very much suits the Alpine team for now. Despite early worries about the relationship between the two, they were a model for consistency in 2023, despite some mechanical issues plaguing the team.
📸 Leave things as they are for now?
TS: Given my belief that Ocon could be the one to replace Hamilton as Mercedes, Alpine will be looking for a new driver in my hypothetical situation. If Ocon was to move on, Gasly would become the team leader which would be incredible for him being a Frenchman in a French team.
I believe the driver line-up will still be all-French though, as Ocon’s departure could open the door for current Formula 2 driver and former Formula 3 champion Victor Martins. The Alpine-affiliated racer was immediately competitive in his debut season of Formula 2 and enters 2024 as one of the title favourites. Even if he doesn’t win Formula 2, I believe he will still do well enough to earn a graduation to Formula 1.
📸 Could a departure for Ocon open a door for 2022 F3 champion Victor Martins?
AJ: Esteban Ocon & Pierre Gasly
TS: Pierre Gasly & Victor Martins
Visa Cashapp RB
AJ: An all-new line up for ‘VCARB’, or whatever you want to call them, and I think name aside, this team should be exciting.
With Tsunoda and Ricciardo exiting or moving on, the door is open for Liam Lawson who impressed in his five races last term. Joining him; potentially Ayumu Iwasa, who like Liam Lawson in 2023, is going to Super Formula. Scary natural pace, I suspect he’ll pip Isack Hadjar to the seat, unless Hadjar does something seriously impressive in F2 this year.
📸 Liam Lawson: deserving of a full season in our eyes.
TS: Urgh, that name…anyway, not the article to rant about that.
Lawson is practically nailed on for a Formula 1 seat with VCARBohydrates and it would serve as a huge injustice if he does not get a full-time seat with the team in 2025. He excelled on his stand-in stint with AlphaTauri in 2023 and has won races in practically every championship he has entered.
AJ: “VCARB-ONATED? VCARB-on fibre?
What an awful name…"
His teammate isn’t so clear cut. Alex’s choice of Iwasa is a solid shout, but it very much depends on how he takes to the super-competitive Super Formula championship in 2024. If the Japanese has a poor season, he can pretty much say goodbye to Formula 1 given the cutthroat nature of Red Bull’s junior academy.
To me it seems like Red Bull and AlphaTau- I mean VCARB are courting Isack Hadjar for a future Formula 1 seat after the Frenchman made his practice debut in Mexico last season. Hadjar is clearly talented and reminds me of a certain Alain Prost with his methodical driving style. A strong second season of Formula 2 with Campos Racing could launch him to the top of the pile for a seat with Red Bull’s B team and I think this is what will transpire.
📸 Could Hadjar be lined up for an F1 seat?
AJ: Liam Lawson & Ayumu Iwasa
TS: Liam Lawson & Isack Hadjar
Williams Racing
AJ: Albon moving on frees up one space and I don’t think Williams can sustain success with Logan Sargeant, so I’m expecting an all new line up here as well.
📸 Bottas would provide experience and race winning expertise on a potential Williams return.
Returning to the team, Valtteri Bottas provides incredible experience and can lead the team as Russell and Albon have before as they continue their comeback from the hell of 2019-2021.
Joining him, Andrea Kimi Antonelli - Italy’s golden boy. He’s won everything on the way up so far and will debut in F2 this season, the expectations being that he can crack the top five in the standings in what is a strong grid, and move up to F1 as quickly as he has moved through the lower ranks so far. Backed by Mercedes, he’s a name we’ll be hearing for a long, long time.
📸 Someone you'll be hearing an awful lot about for a long time: Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
TS: While I hope Albon moves onto Mercedes, I believe he will end up prolonging his stay and continue to help the team move back up the pecking order.
I have two options in mind for his teammate, the first of which agrees with Alex’s choice of Antonelli. The Italian has future superstar written all over him and Williams’ links to Mercedes gives him a definite option for a future Formula 1 seat. However, nothing is guaranteed in motorsport and it’s entirely possible that his fast-track to Formula 2 could backfire. Case in point, Gianluca Petecof.
If Antonelli unexpectedly struggles in Formula 2, the other option could come in the form of Franco Colapinto. The popular Argentine equalled the record for most wins in Formula 3 last season and has the backing of the Williams Academy on his side, so a strong debut season of Formula 2 could set him up for a promotion to replace the struggling Sargeant.
📸 Franco Colapinto could be another option for Williams.
AJ: Valtteri Bottas & Andrea Kimi Antonelli
TS: Alex Albon & Andrea Kimi Antonelli/Franco Colapinto
Stake F1 Team
AJ: Another team, another all new lineup. Exiting Ferrari man Carlos Sainz provides a great option for Andreas Seidl’s team, and he’ll very much become the team leader for Stake as they begin to transition to Audi. A great signing if they can pull it off.
📸 Currently the last man to win a race for Ferrari, but leaving the Scuderia.
Next to him, a man who’s been waiting for this chance - Theo Pourchaire. Another who’ll be in Super Formula this year, the reigning F2 champion is fully deserving of a crack at F1.
TS: All the signs point to Sainz joining Audi in the future, a fitting prospect given Carlo Sainz Sr.’s links to the German marque. A proven race winner and benefitting from experience of Ferrari, McLaren, and the Red Bull setup, Sainz’s accrued knowledge will be invaluable to Audi when it enters the sport in 2026. 2025 will see the Spaniard spend a season at Stake to acclimatise to the team and prepare for Audi’s arrival.
📸 Theo Pourchaire, the reigning F2 title holder.
In full agreement with Alex, Sainz will be joined by 2023 Formula 2 champion Theo Pourchaire. A season of Super Formula in 2024 will keep the Frenchman race-sharp ahead of his Formula 1 debut which will be sweetened by the prospect of becoming an Audi works driver in 2026, should convince the team to keep him on.
AJ: Carlos Sainz & Theo Pourchaire
TS: Carlos Sainz & Theo Pourchaire
Haas F1 Team
📸 Ollie Bearman made two FP1 outings last year with Haas and scheduled for another six this year...it seems set in stone he'll be in F1 for 2025.
AJ: Yet another all new line up! Ferrari’s current wonder kid, Ollie Bearman should make the step to F2 for 2025 and will join Ferrari affiliated Haas for his rookie season. Replacing the experienced Hülkenberg and Magnussen is a task, but he should cope very well.
As always with F1, ‘cash is king’, and Zhou Guanyu’s backers want him in F1. He brings the experience to the team, entering his fourth season in F1 and has proved himself to be much better than first predicted. An astute signing for Haas.
📸 Could Zhou switch from Switzerland to USA for 2025?
TS: I don’t see any situation where Bearman isn’t a Haas driver in 2025. Ferrari’s links to the American squad led to Bearman making his FP1 debut in 2023 where he hugely impressed with not only his speed, but also his work ethic and integration within the team. The Englishman enters Formula 2 in 2024 as one of the red-hot title favourites (and also my tip for the title), and surely will do enough to warrant a chance of Formula 1.
His teammate for me isn’t so clear cut. While Zhou is a possible contender, I don’t think he will stay in Formula 1 after 2024. For me, one potential signing could be Perez after his hypothetical exit from Red Bull. Haas bringing in a rookie such as Bearman will increase the need for an experienced hand on the other side of the garage and Perez would more than fit the bill as a race winner and vice champion, in addition to his marketability as a driver from the Americas being in an American team.
📸 Perez made a habit of performing well in a midfield car before his Red Bull switch - how valuable could he be to new Haas boss Ayao Komatsu?
I also see it as possible that Nico Hulkenberg could stay on for a couple more seasons, but in my mind Perez is a more likely option to partner Bearman.
AJ: Oliver Bearman & Zhou Guanyu
TS: Sergio Perez & Oliver Bearman
Topher and I equally look forward to the 2025 season, but largely because we both want to get these right! We'll revisit once the grid is complete!
📸 Image credits: Sky Sports, Formula Motorsport Limited, McLaren Racing, Haas F1 Team, Williams Racing, Red Bull Content Pool
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