Everyone loves a first-time winner, it breaks the monotony of domination that can plague the sport for multiple years at a time. Fernando Alonso stopped Michael Schumacher's run of titles in 2005; Max Verstappen put an end to Lewis Hamilton's almost unbeatable flurry of championships in 2021, and it was Hamilton himself who prevented Sebastian Vettel from making it five in a row in 2014.
It got the LBRB team wondering: who will be the next first-time World Champion?
Of course, there are many factors at play and everything has to fall into place, but someone has to become a new champion at some point and we had a bit of fun trying to pick who it might be.
Topher's pick: Liam Lawson
I can see Liam Lawson being in a great place to benefit from the current merry-go-round of drivers within the Red Bull and Visa whatsername RB squads.
The Kiwi has been drafted in to replace Daniel Ricciardo for the remainder of the 2024 season to get him up to speed ahead of his first full season in 2025, but it's not entirely confirmed which of Red Bull's two teams it will be with.
Assuming Sergio Perez stays at Red Bull for 2025, I think 2026 will see Lawson promoted to the top team and be in with a shout of fighting for the title. Verstappen may have left the sport by then, but even if he hasn't I'm a firm believer that Lawson has what it takes to be a World Champion.
If Perez isn't retained for 2025, Lawson seems to be the favoured candidate to move up instead of Yuki Tsunoda. I will admit that I think Tsunoda is fully deserving of a promotion to Red Bull but for whatever reason the team isn't willing to take a chance on him.
Instead, Lawson will end up at Red Bull in 2025 or 2026 where he has a mega opportunity to take New Zealand's first Formula 1 title since Denny Hulme in 1967.
Alex's pick: Oliver Bearman
Despite a less-than-impressive season in Formula 2, Ollie Bearman’s stock has risen significantly throughout the course of 2024 and the young Brit can chalk that up to just two performances.
In his F1 debut, called upon to replace Carlos Sainz at Ferrari no less, the teenager qualified 11th before going on to finish ahead of Messrs Lewis Hamilton, Lando Norris, and just behind another fellow compatriot George Russell in a stunning debut showing.
The other performance, called up to F1 once again, but to replace suspended Kevin Magnussen at Haas - who had already signed Bearman for 2025 and beyond. Bearman eased himself to a points finish again in Baku, battling with his fellow 2024 F2 driver, Franco Colapinto.
If these two performances and his Ferrari affiliation are anything to go by, he’s got a bright future and could be a great replacement when Lewis Hamilton departs the Prancing Horse. Could he be the man to restore Ferrari to its former glory?
Kiera's pick: George Russell
George Russell has all the ingredients to become the next first-time Formula 1 world champion. The British driver has been steadily building his reputation as one of the most talented and promising drivers on the grid.
Russell’s rise through the ranks of motorsport has been remarkable. He dominated in junior categories, winning both the GP3 and Formula 2 championships in his first seasons. Since joining F1, Russell has consistently outperformed expectations, especially during his time at Williams, despite having an underperforming car. His ability to extract the maximum from any car, paired with his smooth driving style, shows a level of racecraft needed for a championship campaign.
Russell’s move to Mercedes in 2022, one of the most successful teams in F1 history, put him in a car capable of winning races and challenging for titles. Even though Mercedes has faced challenges with car performance in the last few seasons, Russell still managed to deliver strong results, including his first F1 victory at the 2022 Brazilian Grand Prix. With the team’s resources and engineering expertise, Russell is in a prime position to capitalize on any improvements in car performance.
Russell has already demonstrated remarkable maturity and resilience under pressure. His calm demeanour, both on and off the track, reflects a driver who knows how to handle the intensity of F1 competition. Whether it’s navigating high-pressure situations or overcoming setbacks, Russell’s mental toughness is a key asset in the fight for a world championship, and his hunger for success is undeniable.
He is known for being fiercely competitive, always pushing himself and his car to the limits. His head-to-head battles with established stars like Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen have shown that he has the pace, aggression, and racecraft to take on the best.
As Mercedes works towards reclaiming its dominant form, Russell is perfectly positioned to seize the opportunity and become F1’s next first-time world champion. With his combination of skill, mental strength, and a competitive car, his future in the sport looks incredibly bright.
Issie's pick: Charles Leclerc
To me, it’s clear that Charles Leclerc is next in line to be a first-time world champion. The 39-time podium sitter is currently third in the world championship, just 34 points behind Lando Norris.
The Monégasque is no stranger to being in the top three of the driver’s championship, placing second in the 2022 championship. Since then, he has had two tear-jerking race victories, one at his home circuit in Monaco and one at his team’s home race at Monza. This propels his Grand Prix win count to seven; significantly more than any other driver contending to be a first-time championship winner.
His team, Ferrari, have also had a successful season this year, currently placing third in the constructors' championship. The team has also secured seven times (or eight times, depending on who you ask!) world champion, Lewis Hamilton to race for them for the next three seasons.
Though this may pose a threat to Charles’ current status as ‘Driver Number One’ within the team, it also proves that Ferrari must be advancing performance-wise. Provided that Ferrari continues its current upward climb and improvement in strategy, it seems entirely likely that they are capable of providing Leclerc with a championship-winning car.
Who knows, maybe 2025, Charles’s eighth year of F1 racing, will bring his first world championship.
Linus’ Pick: George Russell
With or without the options of Oscar Piastri and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, George Russell was always going to be my pick for this question! George is a quality driver, he’s one of three drivers to win both F2 and F3 back-to-back (along with Piastri and Charles Leclerc), and he’s also in a pretty strong team!
Now, 2026 will see brand-new regulations that will focus more on the engine side of things, and it’s worth remembering that the last time a regulation change like that happened, Mercedes smashed the field!
Russell is also a two-time Grand Prix winner, he’s had multiple poles this year, and he is someone that I rate very highly! Another thing to think about is we’ve seen over the past couple of years that it’s a lot easier to win a drivers’ title with one superstar driver than two!
Now, Antonelli will be that superstar driver at some point, but that’s going to take a bit of time which means if Mercedes can get their car right (unlike in 2022), Russell is in the perfect position to make this prediction come true!
Luke's pick: Lando Norris
With the constant upward trajectory seen with the MCL36, it’s only a matter of time before either of the drivers in the pairing will receive the coveted driver's championship trophy as a first-time world champion.
So why do I think Lando Norris? In my opinion, Norris has a brilliant chance this year to push the championship challenge onto Max Verstappen if he can keep consistent form without DNFs. Not only could Norris be a champion this year, but he also has a great chance next year with McLaren clinching the constructors' championship from Red Bull.
A higher sum will be provided to the Woking-based team's cost cap meaning more funds can be allocated to the MCL37. This means Norris and Piastri could both have a better chance next year, like Norris does right now, but only time will tell…
Image credit: F1, Liam Lawson, Mercedes-AMG F1 Team, Scuderia Ferrari HP, McLaren
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